[The Tokyo & The Chunichi Shimbun] 司法による政変の背景は

Thailand’s Constitutional Court has ordered the dismissal of former Prime Minister Srettha following a cabinet reshuffle in April, with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s second daughter, Paethongtarn, leader of the ruling party Pheu Thai, becoming the new Prime Minister. Prior to this, the Court also ordered the dissolution of the main opposition party, the Move Forward Party (MFP). What is behind this judicial upheaval? We asked Assistant Professor Pitch Pongsawat, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

How would you analyze the two rulings by the Constitutional Court?

“It can be said that the two decisions, dissolving the MFP and dismissing Srettha, brought stability to Thai politics from the elite network’s perspective. The elite network is still very powerful in Thailand.”

“If the MFP had not been dissolved, Thailand which is still ruled by the elite network would have faced great difficulties over Article 112 of the Criminal Code, which stipulates the Lese Majesty Law. It was not only a challenge to the monarchy, but also to those who ‘use the monarchy as power’, including the military and other conservative elites.”

Why is Thaksin so involved in politics? Conservatives such as the military are very wary of his rise.

“Pheu Thai’s popularity is declining, and Thaksin is being forced to play a ‘political game’. He must ensure that he expands his negotiating power with other parties and the power outside the parliament, and remains the largest ruling party in the coalition government. If he does nothing, there is no guarantee that he can maintain his current position. The problem is that he does not know how to act appropriately.”

Does Peathongtarn becoming PM increase Thaksin’s influence?

“Increasing Thaksin’s influence does not mean he can be as powerful as his old time. Pheu Thai is no longer the most popular party. Pheu Thai could take the lead in the government alliance because of the tough decision that Pheu Thai made to join those pro-military sides that were less popular among the public. Thaksin needs to negotiate with the existing power structure, inside and outside the parliament.” 

Some see the dissolution of the MFP as a setback for democracy.

“I don’t really think so. It is one of the stability that the Thai political system that is still dominated by the elite network requires. Conservatives know that even if the MFP is dissolved, a new party will be born and become popular. They want to use this game to oust some of the political leaders. They can’t deny the will of the people, but they can oust someone.”

As a result of the Senate election, the influence of the Bhumjai Thai, the second-largest ruling party, in the Senate has increased.

“The Senate has the power to consider important bills and approve personnel for independent institutions such as the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission. If the government wants to pass laws, it has to compromise with Bhumjai Thai. Bhumjai Thai knows how to make the most of this game.”

The National Anti-Corruption Commission is investigating 44 MFP MPs who submitted amendments to the Lese Majesty Law.

“It is unclear whether the 44 members can survive politically, but the party’s strength will not weaken even if it loses the 44 members. Not only progressive people but also moderate conservatives are likely to vote for a successor party because they want change. As seen from the past two elections, many moderate conservative supporters of the Democrat party, switched to vote for FFP and MFP. They do not trust Thaksin or Bhumjai Thai leader Anutin.”

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